How the forecast is made
Current turns public NOAA ocean and weather data into a surf forecast for each of 1000+ spots, using a novel physics simulation of how swell turns into rideable surf at the beach. There is no AI or machine learning anywhere in the forecast. No black boxes.
The four steps
Step 1
Deep-sea data
NOAA offshore wave and wind data.
Step 2
Coastal wave model
A full physics wave model of each coast.
Step 3
The last step
Our novel physics simulation of swell becoming rideable surf.
Step 4
Your break
Height, sets and conditions computed for your spot.
Current replaces the black-box machine learning step in surf forecasting with a novel physics simulation of how swell turns into rideable surf.
What goes in
Public NOAA offshore wave, wind and ocean data, four times a day.
What the numbers on a spot page mean
- Surf height
- Face height: the front of the wave from trough to crest, in feet. A range like 2–3 ft is the typical set; "occasional" is the biggest wave you should expect.
- Body words
- Knee high is under 2 ft, waist high 2–3 ft, chest high 3–4 ft, head high 4–6 ft, overhead 6–8 ft, well overhead 8–11 ft, double overhead 11–15 ft.
- Rating
- Poor, Poor to Fair, Fair, Good, Great or Epic. The same rating the app shows, from size, how the wave breaks, its shape and the wind.
- Swell
- Each line is one swell: its height, period in seconds between waves, and the compass direction it comes from. Longer periods carry more push.
- Wind
- Speed in mph and where it blows from. Offshore wind blows from the land out to sea and grooms the face; onshore blows in from the sea and crumbles it; cross-shore runs along the beach.
- Sets, waves per set, lulls
- Waves arrive in groups. The set interval is how often a group arrives, waves per set is how many it holds, and the lull is the quiet gap between breaking waves.
- How they break
- Spilling: soft, crumbling whitewater. Barreling: the lip pitches out and can throw a barrel. Collapsing: the face drops all at once close to the beach. Surging: waves surge up the beach without a clean break.
- Shape
- Crumbly: whitewater rolls gently down the face. Soft: mostly mellow with occasional steeper sections. Punchy: steep takeoffs and a pitching lip. Hollow: throwing, barreling waves.
- Breaking
- The share of waves that stand up and break where surfers sit, instead of rolling through.
- Along-shore current
- How fast the water runs along the beach. Stronger current means more paddling to hold your spot. It is not a rip current forecast.
- Tide
- Predicted tide height in feet, with the next high and low. Rising or falling and low, mid or high describe where the level sits in the day’s range.
- Water temperature and wetsuit
- Forecast water temperature at the spot, not a buoy reading. The wetsuit suggestion uses Billabong’s wetsuit temperature scale, adjusted for air temperature and wind.
How to read surf heights: face height and the Hawaiian scale
Current quotes face height everywhere: the front of the wave from trough to crest. In Hawaii, heights are often quoted at about half the face height. Our Hawaii pages show both, so a 10 ft face reads as 5 ft on the Hawaiian scale.
| Face height | Hawaiian scale | Body words |
|---|---|---|
| 4 ft | 2 ft | head high |
| 6 ft | 3 ft | overhead |
| 8 ft | 4 ft | well overhead |
| 10 ft | 5 ft | well overhead |
| 12 ft | 6 ft | double overhead |
| 15 ft | 7.5 ft | triple overhead or bigger |
| 20 ft | 10 ft | triple overhead or bigger |
What it is not
No AI or machine learning. No cams. No crowd reports.
How often, and the limits
Every spot updates four times a day. Forecasts are estimates. Current is an ongoing research project in physics-based surf forecasting, validated against buoys and real sessions, and improved continuously. Never rely on a forecast for safety: for rip current risk and beach hazards, check the National Weather Service.
See it for your break
Find your spot on the web, or get every hour and days 11–16 in the app.
